Kamala Harris Faces an Uncertain Future in California Politics

Mar 16

What This Means for Immigrants in California and Across the U.S.

This blog is based on the article “Yikes: The bad news for Kamala Harris keeps on coming,” published by NJ.com on March 13, 2025.

Why Immigrants Should Pay Attention to This Race

California is home to millions of immigrants, and the governor’s race in 2026 will directly impact their lives. Policies on immigration, healthcare, education, and workers’ rights depend on who is in charge. Kamala Harris, who has strong ties to California politics, is considering running for governor, but new polls show mixed support for her candidacy.

This blog explains how California’s leadership affects immigrants, what challenges Harris may face, and what this election could mean for the future of immigrant-friendly policies in the state.

Kamala Harris: From Vice President to Possible Governor

After losing the 2024 presidential election with Joe Biden, Kamala Harris is now deciding what to do next. She has a strong political history in California, having served as state attorney general and a U.S. senator before becoming vice president. Many expected her to be the top choice for governor in 2026.

However, new polling suggests otherwise. A survey by Impact Research, a Democratic polling firm, found that only 35% of likely voters think Harris should run for governor. This is a surprising result, given that she has been one of California’s most well-known politicians for many years.

Now, Harris must decide if she wants to enter the race and how she can win over voters who may be looking for new leadership.

A Crowded Race for California Governor

Katie Porter Joins the Race

Even though Harris has not yet announced her campaign, other Democrats are already running for governor. One of the strongest candidates is former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, who became popular for her tough questioning of corporate executives in Congress.

Porter has promised to fight against Trump’s policies and protect California’s progressive laws on immigration, climate change, and public services.

Fun Fact: When Kamala Harris was California’s attorney general in 2012, she appointed Porter to oversee a major mortgage fraud settlement that helped struggling homeowners. Because of their past relationship, some experts believe Porter may step aside if Harris enters the race.

Would Kamala Harris Be the Frontrunner?

Why Harris Could Win

Some political experts believe that Harris would have a strong chance of winning if she decides to run. Jack Pitney, a political scientist from Claremont McKenna College, said that few politicians would want to compete against her.

Because California is a deeply Democratic state, the winner of the Democratic primary is likely to become the next governor. If Harris runs, she could receive support from many Democratic voters and organizations.

Challenges She Could Face

However, polls suggest that some voters are hesitant to support her. Here are a few reasons why:

✔ Voter Concerns About Electability – Harris struggled in her presidential and vice-presidential campaigns, and some question whether she is the best choice for governor.
✔ Desire for New Leadership – Many Californians may prefer a new face rather than a well-known politician returning to state government.
✔ Competition from Other Democrats – Even if Katie Porter drops out, there may still be strong candidates who will challenge Harris.

Counterposition: Kamala Harris Could Lose the Governor’s Race Due to Her Presidential Failures

While some believe that Kamala Harris would be the frontrunner in California’s 2026 governor’s race, her history as a weak national candidate suggests otherwise. Harris has run for president twice—in 2020 and 2024—and both times, she failed to connect with voters, struggled with messaging, and underperformed in key areas. These past failures could seriously hurt her chances in a governor’s race, even in deep-blue California.

1. Harris’s 2020 Presidential Run: A Campaign That Collapsed Before Voting Even Started

✔ Failed to Build a Strong Base – Harris started as a top-tier candidate but quickly lost momentum because she lacked a clear message and did not appeal to a strong base of voters.
✔ Polling Decline and Early Exit – By late 2019, her support had dropped to low single digits, forcing her to drop out before a single primary vote was cast. A candidate who couldn’t even survive a presidential primary in her home state may not be as strong as people assume.
✔ Campaign Mismanagement – Reports from her 2020 campaign revealed internal chaos, bad leadership, and poor strategy—problems that could follow her into a governor’s race.

2. Harris’s 2024 VP and Presidential Performance: A Liability for Democrats

✔ Low Approval Ratings as Vice President – During her time as Vice President, Harris was consistently one of the most unpopular figures in the Biden administration. Many viewed her as ineffective, and she struggled with key assignments, such as border security and voting rights.

✔ Failed to Help Biden Win in 2024 – As Biden’s running mate, Harris did not boost the ticket or help energize voters—a major reason why Democrats lost to Trump. If she couldn’t win nationally, it raises doubts about whether she can convince California voters she deserves to lead the state.
✔ No Major Accomplishments – Many critics argue that Harris’s record as VP and a former senator lacks major achievements. Voters may want fresh leadership rather than someone who has failed to deliver results.

3. Other Strong Candidates Could Take Her Down

✔ Voter Fatigue – Many Californians may want new leadership, rather than a politician from the past who has already run for multiple offices without success.
✔ Challengers With Momentum – Other Democrats, like Katie Porter or other progressive leaders, may be better positioned to energize voters who want a bold, effective governor rather than a recycled national figure.
✔ Doubts About Her Governing Style – Harris’s history of poor campaign management and struggles with clear messaging may make voters question whether she can effectively run the largest state in the country.

Conclusion: Harris’s Political Weakness Could Cost Her the Governor’s Race

While Kamala Harris has strong name recognition, her track record as a candidate is filled with failures. She struggled in her presidential campaigns, failed to boost the Biden-Harris ticket in 2024, and remains an unpopular figure among many voters. California voters may look for fresh leadership instead of giving another chance to a candidate who has already failed on the national stage. If she runs, Harris could face a much tougher fight than expected—and she may lose.

What This Means for Immigrants in California

California has some of the strongest pro-immigrant policies in the U.S. The governor plays a huge role in deciding laws that affect immigrants, such as:

✔ Sanctuary State Protections – Keeping California a safe place for undocumented immigrants.
✔ Healthcare Access – Expanding Medi-Cal and other programs to include low-income immigrant families.
✔ Workers’ Rights – Protecting immigrant workers from wage theft and workplace discrimination.
✔ Education and Legal Aid – Ensuring immigrant students and families have access to education and legal help.

If Harris runs and wins, she is likely to continue supporting pro-immigrant policies, similar to her past work in California and the U.S. Senate. However, if she faces strong opposition from other candidates, the state’s immigration policies could become a bigger issue in the election.

Could Harris Use This to Run for President Again?

Winning the California governor’s seat could help Harris make a political comeback. In the past, governors of California—such as Ronald Reagan—have used the position to run for president.

If Harris leads California through major fights against Trump’s federal policies, she could rebuild her reputation and prepare for another run for the White House in the future.

Final Thoughts: Will Kamala Harris Run?

Harris has not yet decided whether she will run for governor in 2026. Some experts believe she would be the clear Democratic frontrunner, while others are unsure if she has enough support.

✔ If she does run, it could change the race completely and possibly push other Democrats out.
✔ If she does not run, California’s next governor may be someone less known on the national stage.

As California prepares for this important election, immigrants in the state should pay attention to how the candidates discuss immigration, jobs, healthcare, and other key policies.

At Amba Law, we will continue to monitor the election and provide updates on how new leadership in California could affect the immigrant community.

Yasin Amba

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