Somalia and Ethiopia Restore Diplomatic Ties: A Step Toward Stability or a Temporary Truce?
Recently, more than a year of heightened tensions, Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed to restore full diplomatic relations, marking a major shift in a crisis that had pushed the two East African neighbors to the brink of military confrontation.
The dispute was triggered in early 2024, when Ethiopia signed a controversial deal with Somaliland, the self-declared independent region of northern Somalia. In exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence, Ethiopia sought direct access to the sea, securing rights to a port on the Gulf of Aden and permission to establish a naval base.
Somalia Responds
For Somalia, this was an act of territorial infringement. Somalia has historically tolerated Somaliland's self-declared independence, provided that Somaliland refrains from engaging in international agreements that undermine Somalia's sovereignty. However, in January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea via the port of Berbera in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence. Somalia perceived this agreement as a violation of its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
In response, the Somali government took several actions:
Diplomatic Measures: Somalia recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia and declared blocking the accord a national priority. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a parliamentary bill declaring the deal "null and void."
Military Threats: Somalia threatened military action and considered expelling Ethiopian troops from the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
The situation escalated regional tensions, prompting diplomatic interventions. In December 2024, Turkey mediated talks between Ethiopia and Somalia, leading to the Ankara Declaration, where both nations agreed to resolve their disputes peacefully and collaborate on mutual interests, including Ethiopia's access to the sea under Somalia's sovereignty.
Despite these efforts, relations remained strained, with incidents such as clashes between Ethiopian and Somali forces reported in late 2024. The future of Ethiopian participation in peacekeeping missions in Somalia remains uncertain, reflecting ongoing complexities in their bilateral relations.
The Background: Ethiopia’s Quest for a Port and Somaliland’s Struggle for Recognition
Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country, has been landlocked since Eritrea gained independence in 1993. With an economy heavily reliant on imports and exports, Ethiopia has long sought direct access to the sea, reducing its dependence on Djibouti, which currently handles about 90% of Ethiopian trade.
With an estimated population of approximately 132,938,555 in 2025, Ethiopia stands as the world's most populous landlocked country.
Over the past decade, Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic growth, averaging 9.4% annually from 2010/11 to 2019/20, positioning it among Africa's fastest-growing economies. This growth has enabled Ethiopia to enhance its regional influence, exemplified by initiatives such as the recent launch of the Ethiopian Securities Exchange in January 2025, aimed at liberalizing the economy and attracting foreign investment. Additionally, Ethiopia's strategic agreements to secure access to the Red Sea highlight its ambitions to bolster its geopolitical standing in the Horn of Africa.
For decades, Ethiopia has negotiated with its coastal neighbors—Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia—for port access.
However, its decision to bypass Mogadishu and strike a deal with Somaliland was seen as a direct challenge to Somalia’s sovereignty.
Why is Somaliland Important?
Hargeisa - Capital of Somaliland
Hargeisa, the capital and largest city of Somaliland—a self-declared independent state in the Horn of Africa—serves as the region's political, economic, and cultural hub. Situated in a valley of the Galgodon (Ogo) highlands at an elevation of 4,377 feet (1,334 meters), Hargeisa experiences a semi-arid climate tempered by its altitude, resulting in mild temperatures year-round.
Today, Hargeisa is a vibrant city with a population exceeding one million residents. It boasts bustling markets, educational institutions like the University of Hargeisa, and cultural landmarks such as the War Memorial, featuring a preserved MiG fighter jet commemorating those who lost their lives during the struggle for independence.
Somaliland, a former British protectorate, declared independence from Somalia in 1991 after the collapse of Siad Barre’s regime. It has functioned as a de facto independent state, with its own government, currency, and security forces, but remains unrecognized by the international community.
By offering Ethiopia a port in exchange for recognition, Somaliland saw an opportunity to legitimize its independence claims—but it provoked outrage in Mogadishu, which considers Somaliland part of Somalia’s sovereign territory.
Somalia’s response was swift and severe:
❌ Cutting diplomatic ties with Ethiopia
❌ Threatening military action to prevent Ethiopia from establishing a naval base
❌ Announcing Ethiopia’s expulsion from its peacekeeping mission
“Baddeena Iib Maha”
“Our Sea is Not For Sale”
Ethiopia defended its actions, claiming that its economic and security interests necessitate a stable, long-term port agreement.
However, the deal threatened to destabilize the entire region, drawing in global players like Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE, all of whom have strategic interests in the Red Sea corridor.
The Security Angle: Al-Shabaab, Peacekeeping, and Regional Stability
Beyond the political dispute, this rift endangered joint counterterrorism efforts against al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-linked militant group that has waged a brutal insurgency in Somalia for decades.
Ethiopia is a major contributor to the African Union peacekeeping mission (ATMIS) in Somalia, and its troops have played a crucial role in:
🔹 Preventing al-Shabaab from expanding into Ethiopia
🔹 Securing key Somali cities and strategic areas
🔹 Supporting Somali military operations against militants
By severing ties, Somalia threatened to remove Ethiopian forces from ATMIS, weakening its own ability to combat al-Shabaab’s resurgence.
Now, with diplomatic relations restored, Somalia has indicated it will reconsider Ethiopia’s military presence—but tensions over sovereignty and security cooperation remain.
Ethiopia has been actively involved in military operations against al-Shabaab in Somalia since the mid-2000s.
In late 2006, Ethiopian forces intervened to oust the Islamic Courts Union, which led to the rise of al-Shabaab as a significant militant group. Although Ethiopia withdrew its troops in early 2009, it has continued to conduct military operations against al-Shabaab both independently and as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Ethiopian forces have played a crucial role in countering al-Shabaab's influence in the region, participating in various offensives and maintaining a military presence in Somalia to support the Somali government and stabilize the area.
The Geopolitical Battle: Ethiopia, Egypt, and the Red Sea Chessboard
The Ethiopia-Somalia dispute is not just a bilateral issue—it is part of a larger regional power struggle over the strategic Red Sea corridor.
🌍 Egypt: A longtime rival of Ethiopia, Egypt opposes Ethiopian naval expansion and has strengthened ties with Somalia, providing military aid and training. Cairo has also warned against non-Red Sea nations (like Ethiopia) establishing military bases in the region.
🌍 Eritrea: Ethiopia’s former province and adversary, Eritrea has backed Somalia’s position, wary of Ethiopia’s growing military presence near its borders.
🌍 Turkey and the UAE: Both nations have invested heavily in Somali ports, and Turkey played a key role in mediating the recent diplomatic breakthrough.
The stakes are high: controlling ports and naval access in the Red Sea could shift the balance of power in East Africa and the Middle East.
Somaliland's Quest for Recognition Amid Regional Diplomacy
Following Turkey’s mediation between Ethiopia and Somalia, which resulted in Ankara Declaration, which aims to resolve disputes by ensuring Ethiopia's access to the sea under Somalia's sovereignty, without recognizing Somaliland's independence.
As a result, Ethiopia withdrew from its earlier agreement with Somaliland, opting to respect Somalia's territorial integrity. This decision left Somaliland feeling betrayed, as its hopes for international recognition were once again deferred.
Somaliland, which declared independence over 30 years ago, continues to seek international recognition. Despite its stable governance and relative peace compared to other regions, it remains unrecognized by the African Union and the United Nations.
The recent developments underscore the complex dynamics in the Horn of Africa, where geopolitical interests often overshadow the aspirations of regions like Somaliland. While Ethiopia's need for sea access is acknowledged, the path to Somaliland's recognition remains uncertain, highlighting the challenges faced by unrecognized states in the international arena.
Why This Matters for Immigrants from Somalia, Ethiopia, and the Horn of Africa
The Somali and Ethiopian diasporas have established significant communities across the United States and Europe. These diasporic communities have significantly contributed to the cultural diversity and economic vitality of their host countries while maintaining strong ties to their homelands.
Somali Diaspora:
United States: Estimates from 2015 indicate that approximately 150,000 individuals of Somali origin reside in the U.S., with the largest concentration in Minnesota, particularly the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.
Europe: The European Union, Norway, and Switzerland collectively host an estimated 280,000 Somali immigrants. Notable populations include:
United Kingdom: Approximately 108,000 Somali-born residents as of 2018, primarily in London.
Sweden: 66,369 Somali-born individuals as of 2016.
Norway: 43,196 Somali-born residents as of 2016.
Netherlands: 39,465 Somali-born individuals as of 2016.
Germany: 38,675 Somali-born residents as of 2016.
Denmark: 21,050 Somali-born individuals as of 2016.
Finland: 24,365 Somali-born residents as of 2022.
Ethiopian Diaspora:
United States: Approximately 251,000 Ethiopian immigrants and their children live in the U.S., with the largest community in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, which hosts an estimated 35,000 Ethiopian immigrants.
Europe: The Ethiopian diaspora in Europe is substantial, with significant communities in several countries:
United Kingdom: Approximately 15,494 Ethiopian-born residents as of the 2011 Census.
Netherlands: Approximately 16,347 Ethiopians as of 2016.
Germany: Estimates range between 1,000 and 2,000 Ethiopian-born individuals.
For immigrants from Somalia, Ethiopia, and neighboring countries, staying informed about these developments is crucial, as they impact:
1. Family Security and Economic Stability
🔹 Potential conflict over Somaliland would endanger families back home
🔹 Disruptions to remittance flows (Hawala systems) could impact loved ones
🔹 A weakened Somalia-Ethiopia security alliance could embolden al-Shabaab
2. Immigration and Refugee Policies
🔹 Changes in Somalia’s security situation could impact asylum and refugee applications in the U.S., Canada, and Europe
🔹 Ethiopian port access negotiations could shift diplomatic relations, affecting visa and work permit policies for diaspora members
3. Business and Investment Opportunities
🔹 A peaceful resolution could lead to new trade routes, benefiting diaspora entrepreneurs in shipping, logistics, and trade
🔹 Investment in infrastructure and port development could create job opportunities for returning professionals
Remittances (Remittances are funds that migrants send back to their home countries, typically to support family members or communities) from the Somali and Ethiopian diasporas play a pivotal role in the economies of their respective homelands, underscoring the enduring connections these communities maintain:
Somalia:
Annual Remittances: Estimates indicate that Somalia receives between $1.3 billion and $2 billion annually in remittances.
Economic Significance: These remittances account for approximately 25% to 40% of Somalia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), highlighting their critical importance to the nation's economy.
Ethiopia:
Annual Remittances: In the 2023/24 fiscal year, Ethiopia secured over $6 billion in remittances, marking a substantial increase in foreign currency inflows.
Economic Significance: While remittances constitute a smaller percentage of Ethiopia's GDP compared to Somalia, they remain a vital source of foreign exchange and support for numerous households.
These substantial remittance flows underscore the strong ties between the diasporas and their countries of origin, reflecting a deep-seated commitment to familial support and national development.
4. Global Power Struggles and Foreign Influence
🔹 Diaspora advocacy is critical to ensure Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland are not exploited by foreign powers
🔹 Influence from Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE could reshape regional policies—Somali and Ethiopian communities abroad must stay engaged
5. What If Trump Recognizes Somaliland?
In recent developments, the Trump administration and certain Republican legislators have signaled a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy by considering the formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent nation.
In December 2024, Representative Perry Scott introduced the "Republic of Somaliland Independence Act" in the House of Representatives, proposing that the U.S. officially acknowledge Somaliland's sovereignty.
Advocates argue that recognizing Somaliland could serve U.S. strategic interests in the Horn of Africa, particularly in countering China's growing influence in the region. While no official recognition has been granted yet, these discussions indicate a possible reorientation of U.S. policy toward Somaliland under the current administration.
What’s Next? Key Questions Moving Forward
🔹 Will Ethiopia abandon or renegotiate its Somaliland deal?
🔹 Can Somalia and Ethiopia rebuild military trust and work together against al-Shabaab?
🔹 How will Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE react to these shifting alliances?
🔹 Will Somaliland move closer to full independence, or will it be reintegrated into Somalia?
🔹Could the Trump administration recognize Somaliland as is mentioned in the “Project 2025”? What impact would that have on regional politics between Ethiopia and Somalia?
With regional stability, security, and economic futures at stake, the Horn of Africa is at a crossroads. The decisions made in the coming months will shape the future of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Somaliland—not just for those living there, but for millions in the diaspora worldwide.
Now more than ever, staying informed and engaged is essential.
Why Immigrants Should Stay Informed and Engaged
For immigrants, especially those from East Africa and particularly of Somali descent, staying informed about both historical and current events is vital:
• Understanding Shared Experiences: Learning about the journeys of other immigrant groups, like the Irish, offers valuable insights into overcoming challenges and integrating into new societies.
• Recognizing the Importance of Advocacy: Being aware of current events, such as the recent restoration of diplomatic ties between Somalia and Ethiopia, highlights the significance of active engagement in shaping one's community and homeland.
• Fulfilling a Responsibility to Stay Connected: Maintaining awareness of developments in one's country of origin fosters a sense of responsibility and enables individuals to contribute positively to both their new and native communities.
The Role of the Diaspora
For the Somali diaspora, staying informed about such events is the first step toward meaningful action. Engaging with current affairs enables individuals to:
• Support Peace Initiatives: Contribute to efforts that promote stability and development in the Horn of Africa.
• Advocate for Positive Change: Use their voices in host countries to influence foreign policy and humanitarian assistance.
• Preserve Cultural Identity: Maintain a strong connection to their heritage while integrating into new societies.
Conclusion
As the East African diaspora and the global community observe these developments, the responsibility falls upon African nations to collaboratively determine their futures. With mediators like Turkey stepping in to facilitate dialogue, it becomes evident that regional solutions are paramount, especially as traditional powers, such as the United States, grapple with internal challenges under the Trump administration.
To learn more about Somaliland watch the Geographics below!